Yes, it was JOBS JOBS JOBS eclipsing all other data. The October non-farm payrolls were up 271,000 putting the US unemployment rate at 5% down from 5.1%. The hourly earnings were up .4% and initial weekly jobs claims were up 16,000. Productivity in Q3 was up a respectable 1.6%. We started the week with the Institute of Supply Management service sector numbers posting a stronger than expected number for October at 59.1%
All this data was pointing to a stronger economy, leaving experts to assume that the Fed has the strong data (especially since the Fed puts a lot of weight on employment numbers) to support raising the short term rate .25%. That sent the bond market down 17 bps initially, ending the day at 15 bps to the bad… This pushed rates up to their highest level in months.
I always say to lock before the big data because the market reacts and causes swings in rates. Locking makes sense with us because if rates improve more than .25% you get the lower rate anyway, so why gamble…
Hopefully things will calm Tuesday and swing back a little.