It was a quiet week this week in economic news. Next week will bring us the PPI, retail sales for September and CPI which are all 3 indicators of whether there are inflationary pressures. All expectations are that this will be a flat number. This is bad news as a reflection of our economic condition, but good for interest rates. So stay tuned. The week began with a bond market rally this week, but yesterday (Thursday) gave it back. So interest rates were flat over all this week. Next week we will also see Industrial Production numbers and the Capacity Utilization numbers which are a little more obscure or secondary in determining whether inflation is kicking in, though they certainly are early warning signs of things to come.
Back to the Fed… amongst the economists who are surveyed, 1 out of 10 thinks the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate at their next FOMC meeting October 28th, and only 4 out of 10 think December 16th meeting will bring a rate hike.